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The Wrestlemania Buyrate Prediction Pool

Time to get your picks in for the WMXXIX buyrate! Quick rules:

-nwa88 is running this whole thing, I'm just the one posting it, though I did come up with the original idea.  If there's any disputes it's his call.

-Polls close once the WM pre-show starts. Any entries after that will not count. Those who have already made their prediction (see below) are free to change it up until then.

-Duplicate picks are not allowed, and there is no tiebreaker.

-You have to state the values as they would in the actual financials -- to two decimals places (i.e. 1.358 million buys would not be a valid guess).

-As of right now there's no prize for the winner other than bragging rights, though we're working on getting Scott to do a rant or something for whoever wins.

 Here are the picks so far:


Ryan Murphy in for 2.1m
Ian Austin in for 1.9m
J.T. Murphy in for 1.6m
Rocks in for 1.51m
ThePat in for 1.5m
Andrew Dean in for 1.45m
Zanadude (a sarcastic or maybe not) in for 1.4m
Words Of Lightning in for 1.35m
KingDiamond03 in for 1.33m
chefazzy in for 1.32m
Tommy_Wiseau in for 1.31m
Scott Keith in for 1.3m
ONITA100 in for 1.29m
AmericanWolves02 in for 1.28m
Dynamic_dave in for 1.27m
20 Foot Ladder in for 1.26m
Marsolo in for 1.25m
Kbwrestlingreviews in for 1.24m
NewKidsOnTheBlog in for 1.23m
Voth22 in for 1.22m
JohnPetuka in for 1.21m
Slapdabass in for 1.2m
DrinkingMilk in for 1.19m
Kbjone in for 1.18
WaylonMercy24 in for 1.17m
Cabspaintedyellow in for 1.16m
Chris Olejko in for 1.15m
Bruce Chung in for 1.14m
Matthew Graham 1.13m
Mr_E_Mahn in for 1.12m
Eric Griffith in for 1.11m
The Fuj in for 1.1m
SlaughterRama in for 1.09m
Brickcity Pauly in for 1.08m
Hbkslush in for 1.07m
Nick Saikley in for 1.06m
Joe in for 1.05m
Rick Poehling in for 1.04m
YK2310 in for 1.03m
Kyle Warne in for 1.02m
Philippe Tca in for 1.01m
Flair4dagold in for 1m
pbreathing in for 999k
Mulkeymania in for 998k   
Chris Jordan in for 997k
MikeyMike2323 in for 996k
jvc113 in for 995k
MVPete in for 994k
Curtis Williams in for 990k
Ryan Norcross in for 986k
Greg Phillips in for 985k
Jobber123 in for 980k
WhoDatNinja 975k
MadDogJoeDeCurso in for 965k
Nwa88 in for 962k
Brian_Bayless in for 959k
JoseGomez in for 950k
Seth Thrasher in for 930k
Cultstatus in for 925k
Ziggaman730 in for 920k
Jeff Vinson in for 915k
theJawas in for 910k
Adam Curry in for 900k
Stuart_Chartock in for 885k
Worst_in_the_World in for 875k
Knuckleberry Pinn in for 825k
Gin Chan in for 800k
VintageGamer in for 750k
White Thunder in for 700k
Donald Paluga in for 575k

Comments

  1. Well you said no duplicates despite the fact that I want to go for 1.14! Hmmm okay then.. all the realistic numbers have gone IMO so what's the point? I believe duplicates should be allowed! 1.14 is my final decision.

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  2. Sorry about that. What about 1.23m?

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  3. DrinkingMilk in for 1.19m
    Kbjone in for 1.18
    WaylonMercy24 in for 1.17m
    Cabspaintedyellow in for 1.16m
    Chris Olekjko in for 1.15m
    Bruce Chung in for 1.14m
    Matthew Graham 1.13m
    Mr_E_Mahn in for 1.12m
    Eric Griffith in for 1.11m



    DOUCHEBAGS

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  4. and i say this in the most joking manner.


    don't get butt-hurt.

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  5. ziggaman you undercutting son of a bitch.

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  6. Screw it, I say 1.5 mill if that hasn't been picked yet.

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  7. Joke's on you when I win that sweet, sweet no-prize Fuj.

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  8. Isn't Buyrate like ratings and not the raw number? So a Buyrate would be 1.2 and not 2,000,000

    Still.I'll go with 976,535

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  9. So what's the tiebreaker?

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  10. I feel really sheepish asking this, since I was one of the first to predict a low buy-rate, but can you bump me up to 885k?

    I keep looking at "WM18" and "WM26", and I can't help but feel that this year's buy-rate will be very similar to those two (880k for the former, 885k for the latter) - one had one of the biggest dream-matches of all time, while the other had one of the most stacked and promising cards ever, but neither did well because the product as a whole was on a decline. I'm expecting the same this year; ratings have been heading downhill for years, and with nothing fresh to offer the audience, I just don't see the show doing well.

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  11. If you can't bid duplicates on The Price is Right, you can't bid duplicates on the BOD WM 29 Buyrate Extravaganza! Whew, we need a shorter, less nerdy title.

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  12. I think most folks were just abbreviating. 1.2 = 1,200,000.

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  13. For the record my last name only has one k in it (1.15)

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  14. If you open it up to dupes then a lot of people will probably switch up.


    I say just run with it as-is, it doesn't really matter who wins anyhow.


    As long as Fuj loses.

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  15. LOL. I'm fine with that. I'm just gonna feel bad if 100 people show up tomorrow pissed off that they didn't get to contribute, because they only come for the PPV live threads or something. Although I'm pretty sure I spammed this post in a Raw live thread at least.

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  16. Yeah, it's easier than coming up with a fair tiebreaker too.

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  17. 1.1 MILL, BROTHER

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  18. Yeah, technically it's not a 'buy-rate' anymore, but the term has been around since the advent of PPV in the late 1970s and has stuck even though the PPV industry practice has switched to actual buys since you can more reliably enumerate every order.

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  19. Sorry bout that! I don't have edit powers, but hopefully Adam can correct that.



    Fair warning, I certainly made a few typos with names in the list and probably left a few people out, as I could only really guarantee that I'd include those who responded directly to my post (it emails responses). I may have missed those that replied in previous threads to other responses, but I tried to backtrack and get all of them.

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  20. Sure, although one thing to note -- the number for WM 18 was considered excellent in it's time and was actually the second highest WM # ever at that point. You have to remember that WM 18 took place 11 years ago and the PPV audience was much smaller and the paying international audience was virtually non-existent (it picked up starting with WrestleMania 20).

    So that 885k in 2002 was like 1.7% buyrate in that period of time. For WrestleMania 26, that 885k was more like a 1.1% buyrate.

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  21. We're going by total buys.

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  22. Better than the title I came up with.

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  23. Is there actual money on the line?

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  24. umm...

    "-As of right now there's no prize for the winner other than bragging
    rights, though we're working on getting Scott to do a rant or something
    for whoever wins."

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  25. I like a guessing game as much as the next guy, but how are we actually determining a winner? Doesn't the number usually change a fair bit over time? WWE will announce a number, the Meltzer will give a range that is a little below WWE's number, then they talk about waiting until the overseas buys come in, then WWE adjusts their number, then Meltzer will give another approximate range?

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  26. Yeah right, like I'm really sarcastic.

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  27. The official number comes out on the WWE financial report released to the stockholders for Q1 sometime in the summer. That number is in stone and the truth since they can't lie being a public company and all.

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  28. I'll take the 1.23M. Falls short of the 1.3M, plus it's still open. Plus PLUS, I can remember One....Two....THHHHHHHHREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!! (*Said in Mania Challenge voice)

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  29. ah, what the hell. I'll throw in for a logic-defying 1.60.

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  30. You're in. I'll keep updating the original post with any new picks tonight, and add in any pics after I go to bed when I get up.

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  31. You're in for 1.5

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  32. Then stop calling my pick sarcastic! It isn't even in the top 3 most optimistic picks anymore.

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  33. Who's gonna do the Price is Right bid of one buy?

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  34. No can do.

    "You have to state the values as they would in the actual financials -- to two decimals places (i.e. 1.358 million buys would not be a valid guess)."

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  35. nwa88 is the one calling it sarcastic, those picks were copied-and-pasted from the email he sent me. Your beef ain't with me.

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  36. My beef is with you because you're running the list now.

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  37. word.. 992k..

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  38. I'm posting the list, nwa88 is still running the contest.

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  39. ProjectBlue did, but I didn't include it because it was obviously a joke.

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  40. Lol Greg Phillips you scumbag!!!

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  41. I love that, like said below, it will be MONTHS before we know who was right since the guesses are so close together

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  42. That's the number that we'll go by.

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  43. I'd tried to lay claim to 1.11 Million a few weeks back, but ah well, cest la vie. If it's not too late, I'll make a go for 998K

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  44. Yeah, I realize it's kind of apples and oranges, but the number just keeps popping out at me.

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  45. If I win, EVERYONE MUST DRINK MILK.

    Especially the lactose intolerant.

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  46. Well, I just included that little tag because someone else thought you were joking and you didn't get back to it, so I didn't want to have you marked down for a number you didn't want.

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  47. if i win, Prepare for Negrodamus.

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  48. Now that you said it like that, I'll remember mine thanks to the throwing of the Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch.


    "One... two... five (three sir)...... THREEEEE!"

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  49. I'll go 999k. I just can't see it doing anything close to last year. I don't think WWE would EVER release that as the official number though, publicly-traded company or not, they'll find a way of rounding it up to 1m, but whatever.

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  50. i only get soy milk... bleh...

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  51. ...he doesn't get it.

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  52. Exactly my point. Having this sort of thing with the guesses *publicly viewable* (in the original posts and in the comments) basically means you can "win" just by being smart and attentive with the number guesses.

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  53. Really cool of you to organize this. Thanks man

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  54. Definitely a joke. But looks like most of the sweet spot picks have been claimed. I can't see it doing less than say, 950k out of habit and for the price/product issues, more than say 1.1 million.

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  55. I'll take 1.33

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  56. Come on people! Where are the downvotes?!

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  57. Seems significantly more reasonable than 575k.

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  58. I'll take the highball: 2.1 milli.

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  59. 1.9? lol. More likely than 575k though. HAHAH

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  60. I'm going 1.03

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  61. All I hear is the Tootsie-Pop owl =(

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  62. Got it. All eligible picks should be updated, if I missed anyone let me know.

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  63. I'll take what is available but dupes should be allowed as it isn't a 'serious competition'. So 1.23 it is. Though I still believe 1.14 is where it is at!

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  64. HEY ASSHOLE ADAMN CURRY. I'VE BEEN SAYING MY PREDICTION IS 1.1. PUT IT IN, ASSHOLE

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  65. Geez, I'm glad Adam is the one doing the editing and getting all the heat for this and not me lol.

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  66. 10am, just woke up. Pre show starts in 4 hours and I'm definitely excited for wrestlemania today. I'll stick with my original prediction but I'm starting to think this show is gonna do a monster buy rate based on mainstream buzz

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  67. Damn plus there's Knicks thunder and Lakers clippers right before wrestlemania. Its really nice out today but I'm not leaving my apartment till tomorrow morning

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  68. It's rare that its nice in Cleveland so I wanted to go on a run today but yeah, my thoughts exactly

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  69. 1.1 is already taken. Dipshit.

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  70. Based on what's left, it looks like my choices are to go way high (1.32) or kinda low (993). I'll go with the high number of 1.32.


    Adam, if I missed it somewhere and someone else has that, I'll take whatever's closest to that.

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  71. I'll take 1.51, please, m'good man!!

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  72. Such bullshit with these ham n eggers.

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  73. If Fuj wins, we all lose.

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  74. If we're seperating the 1M+ setups by 10K (.01M), then the sub-1M guesses should get the same "protection". Cutting the gap to 5K (or even 1K) is kinda unfair to them.

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  75. Where's Flair4thegold when we need him to keep the peace!?

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  76. 1.14 THEN ASSHOLE

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  77. Don't know how I missed you before, but you're in now.

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  78. Okay then. Honestly though, I'm pretty sure I'm going to lose. I only picked 1.17 because no one else had claimed it and I didn't want to steal anyone else's thunder (or White Thunder's thunder for that matter).

    This show is going to be incredibly hard to figure out buyrate-wise. It's like a Will Ferrell movie in the sense that you don't know until it's released if it's going to be a hit or a bomb. It really could go either way.

    Although whatever they don't make off PPV buys has definitely been made up for by the live gate. $11 million for one show is absolutely fucking insane. They've already paid off Rock and Brock's contracts for the year with that one figure alone.

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  79. Yeah, I only got my number by default too.

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  80. Cleveland will get nothing but praise from me just because those lucky bastards have Betsy Kling.

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  81. One tidbit to throw on the pile -- still heard nothing on new international markets this year, but I guess this was the first WM to be available on Samsung Smart TVs and it was also on X-Box live. There was the WWE stream as well, but that was supposedly a mess on their site with lots if refunds to be issued.

    Not sure if any of that will impact the numbers much, but the show will have more access at least to non cable / non satellite subscribers.

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